mcm2016E Are we heading towards a thirsty planet 我们的地球会受渴吗 - matlab数学建模 - 谷速源码
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标题：mcm2016E Are we heading towards a thirsty planet 我们的地球会受渴吗
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所属分类: 数学建模 资源类型：文档 文件大小: 82.49 KB 上传时间: 2019-08-18 19:41:36 下载次数: 784 资源积分：1分 提 供 者: jiqiren 20190818074238645
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(MCM 2016E) 
 
Will the world run out of clean water? According to the United Nations, 1.6 billion people (one quarter of the world's population) experience water scarcity. Water use has been growing at twice the rate of population over the last century. Humans require water resources for industrial, agricultural, and residential purposes. There are two primary causes for water scarcity: physical scarcity and economic scarcity. Physical scarcity is where there is inadequate water in a region to meet demand. Economic scarcity is where water exists but poor management and lack of infrastructure limits the availability of clean water. Many scientists see this water scarcity problem becoming exacerbated with climate change and population increase. The fact that water use is increasing at twice the rate of population suggests that there is another cause of scarcity – is it increasing rates of personal consumption, or increasing rates of industrial consumption, or increasing pollution which depletes the supply of fresh water, or what? ** 
 
Is it possible to provide clean fresh water to all? The supply of water must take into account the physical availability of water (e.g., natural water source, technological advances such as desalination plants or rainwater harvesting techniques). Understanding water availability is an inherently interdisciplinary problem. One must not only understand the environmental constraints on water supply, but also how social factors influence availability and distribution of clean water. For example, lack of adequate sanitation can cause a decrease in water quality. Human population increase also places increased burden on the water supply within a region. When analyzing issues of water scarcity, the following types of questions must be considered. How have humans historically exacerbated or alleviated water scarcity? What are the geological, topographical, and ecological reasons for water scarcity, and how can we accurately predict future water availability? What is the potential for new or alternate sources of water (for example, desalinization plants, water harvesting techniques or undiscovered aquifers)? What are the demographic and health related problems tied to water scarcity? 
 
Problem Statement 
 
The International Clean water Movement (ICM) wants your team to help them solve the world’s water problems. Can you help improve access to clean, fresh water? 
 
Task 1: Develop a model that provides a measure of the ability of a region to provide clean water to meet the needs of its population. You may need to consider the dynamic nature of the factors that affect both supply and demand in your modeling process. 
 
Task 2: Using the UN water scarcity map (http://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/jpg/0222-waterstress-overuse-EN.jpg) pick one country or region where water is either heavily or moderately overloaded. Explain why and how water is scarce in that region. Make sure to explain both the social and environmental drivers by addressing physical and/or economic scarcity. 
 
Task 3: In your chosen region from Task 2, use your model from Task 1 to show what the water situation will be in 15 years. How does this situation impact the lives of citizens of this region? Be sure to incorporate the environmental drivers’ effects on the model components. 
 
Task 4: For your chosen region, design an intervention plan taking all the drivers of water scarcity into account. Any intervention plan will inevitably impact the surrounding areas, as well as the entire water ecosystem. Discuss this impact and the overall strengths and weaknesses of the plan in this larger context. How does your plan mitigate water scarcity? 
 
Task 5: Use the intervention you designed in Task 4 and your model to project water availability into the future. Can your chosen region become less susceptible to water scarcity? Will water become a critical issue in the future? If so, when will this scarcity occur? 
 
Task 6: Write a 20-page report (the one-page summary sheet does not count in the 20 pages) that explains your model, water scarcity in your region with no intervention, your intervention, and the effect of your intervention on your region’s and the surrounding area’s water availability. Be sure to detail the strengths and weaknesses of your model. The ICM will use your report to help with its mission to produce plans to provide access to clean water for all citizens of the world. Good luck in your modeling work! 
 
Possible Resources 
 
An Overview of the State of the World’s Fresh and Marine Waters. 2nd Edition, 2008. (http://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/index.html). 
 
The World’s Water: Information on the World’s Freshwater Resources. (http://worldwater.org). 
 
AQUASTAT. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. FAO Water Resources. (http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/water_res/index.stm). 
 
The State of the World's Land and Water Resources for food and agriculture. 2011. (http://www.fao.org/docrep/017/i1688e/i1688e00.htm). 
 
GrowingBlue: Water. Economics. Life. (http://growingblue.com). 
 
World Resources Institute. www.wri.org. 
 
 
**Note that the 2013 Mathematical Competition in Modeling (Problem B) and the 2009 High School Modeling Competition in Modeling (Problem A) were related to modeling different aspects of water scarcity. 
 
Your ICM submission should consist of a 1 page Summary Sheet and your solution cannot exceed 20 pages for a maximum of 21 pages. Note: The appendix and references do not count toward the 20 page limit. 
 
我们的地球会受渴吗？(美国竞赛2016年E题) 
 
世界上的水会用完殆尽吗？根据联合国，1.6亿人民（世界人民的四分之一）正在经历水荒。在过去一个世纪，用水量的增长速度是人口增长速度的两倍。工业、农业、居民的日常都需要水的支持。目前有两种缺水的原因：物理性缺水和经济型缺水。物理性缺水指的是该地区没有充足的水来满足用水需求。经济型缺水指的是，该地区的水并未明显缺乏但是缺乏合理的管理和基础设施的建设限制了干净水的获取。许多科学家说缺水问题在气候变化和人口增加的条件下更加趋向恶化。用水一两杯与人口的速度增长这个事实提示我们还存在另外一个缺水的原因：它是否加快了工业消耗的速度、个人消耗的速度或者是加速了污染减少干净水源？ 
 
对所有人供给干净水源是否是可能的？干净水的供给必须把水的（物理性）可获取考虑在内（例如，自然水源、技术进步诸如淡化工厂、雨水收集技术）。理解水的供给是一个天然的跨学科问题。你不仅需要理解环境对水供给的限制，还要理解社会因素是如何影响干净水源的分布和获取的。比方说，差的卫生条件会限制水的供给，人口的增长会给地区水供给带来压力。当你在分析一个地区的缺水问题时，以下的问题是你必须考虑的。历史上人们是如何恶化或者缓解了这个问题？地理的、地质的、生态的原因是怎么影响水供给的？我们如何准确的预测未来水的可获取性？如何评估新水源或者替代水源的潜力（比如海水淡化技术、雨水收集技术或者未发现的地下水）？有什么人口统计学的和健康与之相关的问题？ 
 
问题说明： 
 
任务1：建立一个能够提供一个尺度来衡量一个地区提供干净水来满足地区需求的能力。在你建模的过程中，你可能需要考虑影响供需的动态因素。 
 
任务2：使用联合国的缺水分布地图。选取一个水相对或者严重超负荷的国家或者地区。解释为何、如何该地区的水陷入了缺乏的境地。确认一定要通过处理物理型和经济型缺水来解释社会和环境的双重驱动因素。 
 
任务3：在你任务2中选择的地区中，使用你任务1 中的模型来预测该地区15年后水供给的情况是怎么样的？进而，15年后的这种情况又是如何影响该地区居民的生活的？确定要包含环境驱动的影响在模型构成中。 
 
任务4：在你选择的地区中，设计一个考虑了所有缺水驱动因素的调节方案。任何的干预措施都会不可避免的影响到周围的环境和整个的生态系统。讨论这些影响，以及这个方案的整体优缺点。最后，你的方案是如何缓解这个问题的？ 
 
任务5：使用你在任务4中设计的调节方案和模型来预测未来水的可获取性。你选择的地区可以在缺水问题上变得轻松一些吗？水问题会变成未来的关键议题吗？如果这样，水缺乏什么时候会出现？ 
 
任务6：写一个20面的报告（summary sheet不包括在内）来解释你的模型：你选择地区的在没有调节情况下的水缺乏状况、你的调节措施、你的调节措施对该地区及周边地区水供给的效果。一定要明确模型的优缺点。ICM会用你的模型来帮助别人。（人道主义） 

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